With the withdrawal of Quality Road, Win Willy, and others from contention in Saturday’s $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, one can almost hear the cumulative handicapping world sputtering and creaking as it tries to get back on track. It doesn’t help either that each day brings a new workout, each day brings another impressive looking colt to the track, each day another one looks great on the surface.
Handicapping the Derby is not easy. If you visit a site that claims success in this endeavor, leave immediately. Each handicapper is affected by the latest handicapping trends, eye-popping workouts and appearances on the track, and personal sentiments.
Yet everyone loves to try. Why? Because every horse only gets one chance at the Kentucky Derby. Because the Kentucky Derby is stacked with talent. Because the Kentucky Derby gate is loaded with the equivalent of 20 equine teenagers – all with the potential for failure and inconsistency (and perhaps no particular reason why), many with the potential for spectacularity, some of them out to get the others, some of them completely intimidated by the others. And all of them on a stage bigger and brighter than any previous venue. A stage beheld by 80,000 people in the infield alone. A stage surrounded by a “boiling sea of people” – a very American mix consisting of the rich, the poor, the refined, the uninhibited, the balanced, the insane, the well-dressed, the half-naked, the serious, the indifferent, the sober, and the smashed. The best of handicappers could go broke, while the greenest of gambling rookies could strike it rich. And, above all, there’s always that chance – no matter how sliver-slim it may be – that one of these young upstarts could beat the immortal Secretariat’s record of 1:59 2/5.
Even if you don’t love it, it’s like a replay of a grotesque injury – you just have to watch.
According to Intellicast, Saturday’s forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, consists of early showers becoming steady rain later in the day. High of 61 º F.
Let’s meet the contenders.
Post 1 – West Side Bernie (Bernstein)
Jockey – Steward Elliott
Owner – Lori and George Hall
Trainer – Kelly Breen
This dark bay colt finished a solid second to the favorite, I Want Revenge, in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct his last time out. His Beyer Figure for that second-place finish is tied with Friesan Fire’s and easily betters that of many of the graded-stakes-winning horses in this field. It was a big improvement for him, and he has been training well at Churchill. Still, he’ll have to improve again big time if he wants to finish in the money.
Post 2 – Musket Man (Yonaguska)
Jockey - Eibar Coa
Owner – Eric Fein and Vic Carlson
Trainer – Derek Ryan
Those of you who read this blog regularly know that this horse is my sentimental weakness, for two reasons: 1) I witnessed him win the Illinois Derby (G2) in person, and 2) despite his record and all the big drop-outs, hardly a single respected handicapper dares to put him in their Top Ten, mostly due to his breeding. Indeed, at 252 he has the fourth lowest Tomlinson rating in the Derby field for the 10 furlong distance (320 is considered average). And if it rains on Saturday, Musket Man will be chartering unknown territory; he has only raced and worked out on tracks labeled “fast.” Yet this is a colt that, with one exception (a third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes [G3] at Tampa Bay Downs), has won every race and done everything asked of him, improving big when he needs to do so. He was one of the first contenders stabled at Churchill and, although not popping any eyes, he has been training well there. Eibar Coa was more impressed with his move over the Churchill dirt on April 18 than he was with his Illinois Derby win, and even more impressed with his move on April 25. He’s a classic overachiever, and don’t be surprised if he does it again on Saturday.
Post 3 – Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow)
Jockey - John Velazquez
Owner – WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer – Eoin Harty
He finished third to The Pamplemousse in the Sham Stakes (G3), and then third to Pioneerof the Nile (G1) in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s only raced on sythetic dirt, and he just galloped over the Churchill dirt for the first time yesterday. He’s got a great rider for the Derby in Velazquez, but Velazquez is also new to this horse.
Post 4 – Advice (Chapel Royal)
Jockey – Rene Douglas
Owner – WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Advice won the final major Kentucky Derby prep, the Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, his first win since he broke his maiden on July 3, 2008. He has a new jockey for the Derby. He put in a great four furlong workout at Churchill on April 27. However, there is just too much stacked against him. He is not bred for this distance, and his post position, combined with his running style (in the Lexington he closed from dead last in a field of 11), doesn’t give him much of a chance. At least he shouldn’t make life too difficult for the better horses around him.
Post 5 – Hold Me Back (Giant’s Causeway)
Jockey – Kent Desormeaux
Owner – WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer – Bill Mott
This dark bay colt has an impressive resume, and last year’s Derby rider to boot, but he finished fifth last year in his only race on dirt. He also doesn’t seem to be showing the signs of improvement that one would like to see in a good longshot. His Beyer in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), 93, was worse than his Lane’s End (G2) Figure, 97. He went an honest 1:01 3/5 over five furlongs in his only workout at Churchill on April 26. Like Advice, Hold Me Back will also not be near the front out of the gate. Only a blistering pace gives him a fighting chance.
Post 6 – Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy)
Jockey – Gabriel Saez
Owner – Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farms
Trainer – Larry Jones
This bay colt will be a sentimental pick and good one at that. This will likely be the last Derby for his trainer, Larry Jones. Last year he trained the brilliant and fragile filly Eight Belles, who broke down immediately after the Derby and was euthanized. Jones was not at fault for that. He is a great trainer and a great guy, but all the scrutiny has been hard on him, and so he has said this will be his final Derby before he retires. But he’s going out with a bang with this loaded cannon. On April 19, Jones wound up his colt with a full eight furlong workout. Then, on April 27, he unwound him with a blazing five furlong work in 0:57 4/5. And how did he survive the work? “[Yesterday] he looked like he wanted to do much more than trainer Larry Jones had scheduled and actually seemed to come out of his work looking a bit more fluid than he went in” (Mike Welsch, DRF). The morning line odds on him are 5-1, but he should get more action than that at the windows on Saturday, and it will be deserved action. His Louisiana Derby (G2) Beyer of 104 is the third best posted by any of the contenders.
Post 7 – Papa Clem (Smart Strike)
Jockey – Rafael Bejarano
Owner – Bo Hirsch
Trainer – Gary Stute
I haven’t been that high on this horse, even though I had been high on Old Fashioned, whom Papa Clem beat out by a half length in the Arkansas Derby (G2). That is, I haven’t been that high on him until today. In his last work on April 25, he went seven furlongs in a lazy 1:29 1/5. But this morning Gary Stute put him through a short three furlong blowout in 34 seconds flat. The next fastest work at that distance today was 0:37 2/5. With that move, Papa Clem should be wound almost as tightly as Friesan Fire in the gate on Saturday. And he may have a bit more speed out of the gate than Friesan Fire, which may keep him out of trouble in the early going. Papa Clem also shares Curlin’s (2007 Horse of the Year) sire, Smart Strike. With morning line odds of 20-1, he should provide an outstanding value bet. Obstacle: In the past, Papa Clem has fallen short to fellow Derby contenders Pioneerof the Nile – in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) on February 7 by a half length – and Friesan Fire – in the Louisiana Derby on March 14 by 7 1/4 lengths.
Post 8 – Mine That Bird (Birdstone)
Jockey – Calvin Borel
Owner – Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equine
Trainer – Bennie Woolley, Jr.
Along with Nowhere to Hide, this horse really doesn’t belong. Only a catastrophe gives him a chance, and he’s likely the one to cause it, so there go his chances. His best career Beyer was an 81 on February 28, and his last workout was 1:02 over five furlongs at Churchill.
Post 9 – Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa)
Jockey – Chris DeCarlo
Owner – Jake Ballis, Rashard Lewis, Reagan Swinbank, Reed Ballis & William Swinbank
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Again, not much to say here. His best career race was the March 14 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), in which he ran first up to the wire, where late-charging Musket Man caught him by a neck. His subsequent fifth place performance in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) was less than admirable. He showed a “good turn of foot” in his five furlong work at Churchill on April 27, but it was hardly enough to shake up anyone’s Derby picks. Without the scratch of Square Eddie, Join in the Dance would not be in this race.
Post 10 – Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor)
Jockey – Alan Garcia
Owner – Godolphin Racing LLC
Trainer – bin Suroor Saeed
This dark bay was the surprising winner over stablemate and fellow Derby contender Desert Party in the United Arab Emirates Derby (G2). Since then he has also outperformed his stablemate in their only works at Churchill on April 25, going five furlongs in a smooth 0:59 1/5 (vs. Desert Party in 0:59 3/5). He has a good post position, and his sire has produced a number of successful winners at classic distances, including Funny Cide and Flower Alley. Most of the masses, including myself, will not know whether or how to bet these Arabian horses. They certainly seem to deserve some action, but American sentimentality and infamiliarity will probably put them at a decent price on Saturday. Of the two, Regal Ransom appears to be the better pick. See “Post 19 – Desert Party.”
Post 11 – Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride*ARG)
Jockey – Mike Smith
Owner – Craig Family Trust
Trainer – Jerry Hollendorfer
The bay runner-up to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) has steadily improved in each one of his seven starts since August 29. He has also never finished out of the money since then. He appears to be moving as well on dirt in his works at Churchill as he did on the California synthetics, on which he has raced exclusively up until now. He’s a big question mark, but he has definitely earned the right to run in this race and could make a good inclusion in some exotics.
Post 12 – General Quarters (Sky Mesa)
Jockey - Julian Leparoux
Owner – Thomas McCarthy
Trainer – Thomas McCarthy
This horse is definitely the feel-good story of the year so far, and (I’ve been chomping at the bit to say this, since I don’t get to say it often) Bill Finley has written an excellent article documenting Tom McCarthy and his horse. Tom is a retired schoolteacher from Louisville in his seventies who, for all intents and purposes, is out of his league at the Kentucky Derby. Yet good horses put modest men like McCarthy on equal competitive terms, at least for a day, with infinitely wealthy rulers like Sheik Mohammed. And best of all, his horse actually has a chance. Tom’s gray colt posted a 102 Beyer in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on February 14. More recently he posted a 95 in his Blue Grass (G1) victory on April 11. Like his Tampa Bay nemesis Musket Man (whom Eibar Coa chose as his mount in preference to General Quarters), his breeding doesn’t match up well with the Derby distance. But, also like Musket Man, he continues to overachieve. General Quarters’ owner/trainer Tom McCarthy is living his dream. And if his horse pulls off an upset on Saturday, they both will inspire the dreams of many others too.
Post 13 – I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even)
Jockey – Joe Talamo
Owner – David J. Lanzman & IEAH Stables, Puglisi Racing, Charles Winner
Trainer – Jeff Mullins
I Want Revenge is Big Brown-ish. Like Big Brown, I Want Revenge has some truly freaky talent. He scored big with a 1 1/2 length win and a 103 Beyer in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct after breaking flat-footed from the gate and then failing to find his feet for the first 15 yards or so. In his previous race, the Gotham (G3) on March 7, he scored a 113 Beyer. What could he have done in the Wood Memorial? Apparently, that’s what everyone else is asking too, because he has been installed as the morning line favorite (just like Big Brown) at 3-1. It would be surprising if he were not also the betting favorite on Saturday. Like Big Brown, he is owned by IEAH Stables and their shady businessmen. Like Big Brown, he has a trainer who likes pushing the limits with NTRA restrictions. In fact, Jeff Mullins will serve a seven-day suspension (weak, if you ask me) starting the day after the Derby for injecting one of his horses with an over-the-counter medication in the Aqueduct security barn on April 4. The networks and press will probably try to avoid this for the most part, but it’s a shame that thoroughbred racing always has to have several of these guys (and usually one in the spotlight). But I digress. I Want Revenge doesn’t have a lot of speed out of the gate, but after overcoming his start in the Wood, there will be many expressions of surprise (on my face too) if he does not finish in the money on Saturday.
Post 14 – Atomic Rain (Smart Strike)
Jockey – Joe Bravo
Owner – Lori and George Hall
Trainer – Kelly Breen
This bay colt has improved by leaps and bounds in his last three starts, his most recent being a fourth behind I Want Revenge in the Wood. He put in a bullet four furlong workout at Monmouth Park on April 28 (0:47 1/5) and arrived at Churchill yesterday. Otherwise his only advantage is his breeding. As a half brother to Papa Clem, he has the second best Tomlinson rating in the field for this distance at 356.
Post 15 – Dunkirk (Unbridled’s Song)
Jockey – Edgar Prado
Owner – Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
This gray is overrated. (And with the forecast being what it is, perhaps the maxim “Never bet a gray on a rainy day” also applies.) I’ve already compared him to Republican candidate Fred Thompson – he’s got rich blood, a reputation, and all sorts of connections, but he hasn’t shown that he can come out on top against capable competition. However, with Quality Road (to whom he was runner-up in the Floriday Derby [G1]) scratched due to a quarter crack, he does give Todd Pletcher a good chance. He has improved in all three of his career starts and, if the figures are to be believed, scored the second best Beyer of any horse in the Derby field in the record-setting Florida Derby. He has been training well at Palm Meadows in Florida. He arrived at Churchill on Tuesday and galloped for the first time over Churchill’s dirt yesterday. According to Mike Welsch, “he did look healthy and appeared to gallop with good energy” (DRF). Part of me hopes Dunkirk does win, just so that all his hype will finally be justified.
Post 16 – Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker)
Jockey – Garrett Gomez
Owner – Zayat Stables LLC
Trainer – Bob Baffert
Everyone has been oohing and aahing over the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner. Apparently the Churchill Downs handicappers love the way he has been moving over the Churchill dirt. He has had two respectable works since he arrived, his latest being a five furlong move in 1:01 on April 27. But he must perform better on dirt than he has on synthetics, and all of his races thus far have been on synthetics or turf. His morning line odds are 4-1. Somehow I don’t think he’ll be second at the windows on Saturday, so he should actually make a good bet. However – and maybe I’m just not seeing something everyone else is – judging from both his videos and his form, I don’t think he can or will win.
Post 17 – Summer Bird (Birdstone)
Jockey – Chris Rosier
Owner – Kalarikkal and Vilasini Jayaraman
Trainer – Tim Ice
This will only be Summer Bird’s fourth career start. His improvement from his second to his third race was Dunkirk-esque. He finished third 1 1/4 lengths behind Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby (G2) in his last start. His only workout at Churchill Downs was a lethargic six furlong exercise. Unless you think that he is going to improve as much in the Derby as he did at Oaklawn Park, he’s not worth playing.
Post 18 – Nowhere to Hide (Vindication)
Jockey – Shaun Bridgmohan
Owner – My Meadowview Farm
Trainer – Nick Zito
See “Post 8 – Mine That Bird (Birdstone).” His form has actually deteriorated in his last three races, his last being a fourth place finish 11 1/4 lengths behind Musket Man in the Illinois Derby (G2). This post position and his lack of speed will either leave him hung outside the field to dry or stuck behind too much competition. The only thing he has going for him is his trainer, but Zito hasn’t had any success at the Derby in a long time.
Post 19 – Desert Party (Street Cry)
Jockey – Ramon Dominguez
Owner – Godolphin Racing LLC
Trainer – bin Suroor Saeed
See “Post 10 – Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor).” Top European jockey Frankie Dettori didn’t make the trip to Kentucky to keep his mount in the Derby; that probably says something about his chances. Stick with Regal Ransom if you’re big on the Arabians.
Post 20 – Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus)
Jockey – Robby Albarado
Owner – Robert Baker and William Mack
Trainer – D. Wayne Lukas
This bay colt has some respectable Beyers on his resume (94 and 91 last two times out, respectively), but has finished behind other horses in this field who are longshots themselves – Summer Bird (Arkansas Derby) and Hold Me Back (Lane’s End Stakes). Plus, he’s breaking from Big Brown’s post without Big Brown’s talent. Not a chance.
My Picks
- Friesan Fire
- I Want Revenge
- Papa Clem
Dark Horse – Musket Man
Longshot - General Quarters
Best Value – Regal Ransom
My Bet – Musket Man, across the board
If you happen to be in the swarming infield, look for me. I’ll be in khaki shorts and a t-shirt, looking lost and dazed, but having the time of my life.
Busy Weekend (Continued)
April 19, 2009 by thoroughbredracing
Nick Zito’s Grade 1 champion Commentator finished a disappointing fourth 6 3/4 lengths behind local hero and track record-holder Researcher in the first running of the Charles Town Classic late Saturday night. The veteran gelding held a good pace at the front of the pack for almost a mile before fading badly, especially in the last 1/16 of a mile. Researcher came home in 1:49 4/5 for the 1 1/8 mile race.
It will be interesting to see what Zito does next with his horse. Perhaps he needs a few races to warm back up to his old form.
Papa Clem
The Gary Stute trainee Papa Clem put in a lolligagging seven furlong work over a good Churchill Downs track on Sunday. “I think I had him in 1:30 and change for seven-eighths,” he commented afterwards (Brisnet Editorial). He was going so slow, in fact, that the track clockers put him down for a five furlong work. Stute’s idea was to familiarize his colt with the surface over a considerable distance. He may as well have galloped him himself.
Papa Clem posted an impressive score in the Arkansas Derby (G2) over race favorite, and since retired, Old Fashioned. But we’ll have to wait until this coming Saturday to see Papa work seriously over the Churchill Downs surface. I got nothing out of this workout one way or the other analysis-wise. If you’re playing the Derby on May 2, I would just scratch this workout off your form and handicap with everything else.
Friesan Fire
Now this colt actually had a workout over a considerable distance. Friesan Fire, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, went a full mile over the synthetic surface at Keeneland in 1:39 3/5. That’s not all too impressive at first glance, but what was impressive was his final quarter in 0:23 4/5. Trainer Larry Jones wanted to tighten him up, and it looks and sounds like he did just that. I like Jones’ method. Depending on what he continues to do with the colt leading up to the Derby, Friesan Fire may just end up being the most spring-loaded horse in the gate on May 2.
Jones plans on shipping Friesan Fire to Churchill on Friday, with a final work scheduled the following Monday.
Posted in General, Triple Crown | Tagged Arkansas Derby, Charles Town Classic, Churchill Downs, Commentator, Friesan Fire, Gary Stute, Keeneland, Larry Jones, Louisiana Derby, Nick Zito, Papa Clem, Researcher, workouts | Leave a Comment »